I will be refraining from predicting match results until further notice. I fear I have been jinxing things, and we certainly don't want that!
So, for this week's Champions League match against PSG, I’ll be pivoting to some alternative programming—perhaps an in-depth profile on the baguette.
YNWA.
Liverpool return to the Etihad tomorrow knowing exactly what stands in their way: a Manchester City side that has already beaten them twice this season. It’s a matchup between two perennial heavyweights, both of which are suffering from varying degrees of identity crises. City arrive with confidence after vanquishing Arsenal in the Carabao Cup. The Reds’ recent performances are reminiscent of Derek Zoolander’s immortal soul searching, “Who am I?”
Recent History. Liverpool did not lose twice to City because they were overmatched in talent. They lost because City dictated where and how the games were played.
1. Win in the Middle. In both league meetings, City consistently overloaded Liverpool’s midfield and forced uncomfortable decisions. Rodri repeatedly received the ball facing forward. Liverpool’s midfield line was stretched between pressing high and protecting the back four, and City exploited that hesitation. Once Liverpool lost compactness through the spine, City were able to recycle possession until gaps inevitably appeared. Liverpool’s pressure wasn’t ineffective — it was mistimed. The press arrived half a second late, allowing City’s most technical players to play through it rather than around it.
2. Lost in Transition. LFC has traditionally hurt City in transition. This season, LFC’s transition has been more spoon than knife. In both matches, Liverpool’s breakaways lacked numbers and clarity. Too often, Mohamed Salah received the ball isolated, forced to either beat multiple defenders or recycle play. Without consistent third man runs from midfield or decisive overlapping from full backs, Liverpool’s transitions ended as quickly as they began. City were comfortable surrendering space wide because they trusted their rest defense — and because Liverpool failed to punish it.
3. Mentality Monsters. Neither of Liverpool’s defeats were blowouts. Both were decided late, after long spells where the Reds competed. But City thrive on moments. A missed clearance. A half-lost duel. A run not tracked for three steps. In both games, Liverpool conceded decisive goals late because they switched off — not physically, but mentally. Against City, that is fatal.
So, How Do We Advance? Basically, just do the opposite. Stay compact and disciplined in the middle; press more intentionally; transition clinically; and believe. We win the center of the pitch by making Rodri uncomfortable, putting him under pressure before he can face goal. Keep the middle organized and focused. Press cohesively, with our attackers sitting in channels and midfielders compact. Take advantage of transitional opportunities by looking to go vertical first. Most importantly, don’t switch off. Let’s keep a clean sheet in the last 15 minutes. We have the talent to win; we just need to believe we can win.
Match Prediction: City 0 – 3 LFC. The Reds advance to take on Port Vale (!) in the semis. ‘Nuff said.
Apologies in advance for this diversion but, in addition to supporting Liverpool, I am also distracted from time to time by the USMNT. So, as this international break closes and the shadow of the 2026 World Cup draws ever nearer, let’s take a moment and allow me to opine on who I believe Poch should name to his 26-man roster. My ethos? Put our best 23 on the list (along with 3 keepers (because you have to)). Let’s play dynamic, attacking soccer and just score more than the other side. As Brian Clough reportedly said, “Players lose you games, not tactics. There’s so much crap talked about tactics by people who barely know how to win at dominoes.” In that spirit, here’s my domino-winning squad.
Keepers: Matt Freese (NYCFC) starts betwixt the sticks. I don’t know that he’s better than Turner, but he’s got a hotter hand at the moment. Backups are Matt Turner (New England) and Patrick Schulte (Columbus Crew). As an aside, remember when all our best keepers were starters for European clubs? What happened?
Defenders: Chris Richards (Crystal Palace) might be the first name on my team sheet. I like his moxie. Tim Ream (Charlotte FC) for his leadership. Rounding out the center back group are Miles Robinson (Cincinnati) for his recovery ability, with Auston Trusty (Celtic) and Mark McKenzie (Toulouse) for their versatility.
On the outside, we can pretty much ink-in Sergiño Dest (PSV) and Antonee Robinson (Fulham), with Joe Scally (Gladback) and, with my first potentially controversial selection, Kristoffer Lund (FC Koln) as their deputies.
Midfield: I want a midfield that can protect the back line and support the attack. I’ve picked Tyler Adams (Bournemouth), Weston McKennie (Juventus), Yunus Musah (Atalanta), and Gio Reyna (Gladbach) to start. Johnny Cardoso (Atlético Madrid), Malik Tillman (Leverkusen), Benjamín Cremaschi (Parma), Diego Luna (Real Salt Lake), and Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver) are available from the bench. If only we could somehow have an adaptation of baseball’s designated hitter rule and have Berhalter come in for set piece deliveries.
Attack: Christian Pulisic (AC Milan), Folarin Balogun (Monaco), and Tim Weah (Marseille) start (but I probably push Weah back a bit into a winger and have Dest go inverted). Ricardo Pepi (PSV) and Brenden Aaronson (Leeds) come off the bench to create chaos in the last 20. I’d love to have some more options here in this phase of the game but I think there’s enough attacking talent/hybrids in the midfield (Tillman, Cremaschi, Luna) to make up for the lack of pure attackers.
Brian Clough also famously said, “It only takes a second to score a goal.” Here’s hoping to multiple seconds such as that come June. YNWA.
With the news of Mo Salah's imminent departure coming out yesterday, I couldn't help but begin to speculate what the starting XI might be come next campaign. Without further adieu, here's my way too early lineup for next fall:
“He’s our centre‑half, he’s our number four… calm as you like.”
The chant still rings around Anfield for a reason. Yet in 2025/26, as Liverpool’s defensive record wobbles and transition goals pile up, Virgil van Dijk has found himself back under scrutiny. The question keeps resurfacing: has he declined? Spoiler alert: he has not (at least not in any way that explains LFC's struggles).
For this comparison, we focus on centre‑backs playing meaningful minutes in the Premier League this season.
Despite Liverpool conceding more goals than in past title‑challenging seasons, Van Dijk remains one of the least dribbled‑past defenders in the league. His rate of being beaten 1v1 is still among the best for Premier League centre‑backs, comparable to Dias and Saliba, and better than Romero in pure defensive security metrics. Van Dijk is not getting exposed repeatedly in isolated duels. His tackling numbers are lower than Romero’s — but that reflects restraint, not passivity. He commits fewer fouls than most elite CBs, preserving defensive shape
He’s still defending cleanly. The issue is how often he’s forced into emergency defending.
In the Premier League this season, Van Dijk is winning roughly 70%+ of his aerial duels, placing him firmly in the elite tier alongside Dias and ahead of most CBs not named Romero. Saliba is excellent aerially but sees fewer contested duels due to Arsenal’s territorial control. Romero is more aggressive but less consistent. Van Dijk remains Liverpool’s primary set‑piece and box‑defense anchor
There is no meaningful aerial decline. Liverpool’s set‑piece defending issues are systemic, not individual.
Among Premier League centre‑backs, Van Dijk remains one of the best distributors from deep: ~90% pass completion; high volume of progressive long passes; minimal turnover rate under pressure. Dias is more conservative and generally opts for safer circulation; Saliba for cleaner, short-range progression; and Gvardiol may have superior carrying but less long-range control.
Van Dijk is still one of the league’s best control defenders — calm tempo, clean exits, no panic.
This is where the analysis shifts away from Van Dijk — and toward Arne Slot’s system and midfield instability.
Under Slot, Liverpool hold a higher and narrower line; commit fullbacks aggressively; and rely heavily on CBs to defend large transition spaces. This places Van Dijk in repeat sprint recovery scenarios — the one area where age affects even elite defenders first. Saliba benefits from consistent double-pivot protection and at City, Dias and Gvardiol defend behind the league's best rest-defense structure.
Van Dijk does not.
Liverpool’s biggest issue this season has been midfield unreliability, which is showing up as poor counter‑press resistance; gaps between lines; and late tracking on turnovers. This results in VVD facing attacks already moving at full speed where he is often being forced to back‑pedal instead of stepping up. No centre‑back in the league thrives in that environment.
Virgil van Dijk has not become Liverpool’s problem. What has changed is the ecosystem around him. Liverpool’s defensive struggles are not about Van Dijk losing quality —they’re about removing the conditions that once amplified it.
Fix the midfield structure. Restore rest defense. Manage his minutes. Do that, and the chant still fits.
Calm. As. You. Like.
